Identifying the Effective Factors and the Importance of the Harirud Watershed in Afghanistan and its Impact on Iran

One of the problems in the analysis of Hydro politics relations in the international river system is that the same factors can create a diverse range of conflict or cooperation, and even the same variable may play a different role in relation to other variables in each coastal country. Therefore, it is necessary to know the variables and the role that each variable plays in formulating a model for analyzing opportunities and risks for countries that share a watershed with other countries. One of the fundamental measures in the analysis of Hydro politics relations in the transboundary river system is to know the variables. Which play a role in the importance of transboundary waters for countries. Harirud water enters Iran from Afghanistan


RESEARCH METHODS
The field method uses a combination of Delphi methods and cross-matrix analysis with Micmac software.The Delphi method is one of the methods of group knowledge acquisition, which is a structured process for predicting and helping decision-making, survey rounds to collect information and finally group consensus (Zali, 2014:1-36).Structural analysis is basically a tool to shape ideas.With this tool, a system can be described with the help of a matrix that connects its components.By examining these links, it is possible to determine the necessary variables for the transformation of the system.This tool can be used alone or as part of a complex pattern prediction effort.This method was developed with Micmac software by Michel Gaudete.The ability of this model is to identify the relationships between variables and ultimately to identify the key variables that are effective in completing the system (Gara et al., 2015:36-68) a two-dimensional matrix known as the matrix of mutual effects is used to examine the relationships between variables.
The statistical population of the research has been selected according to the type of expertise and work experience and relevance to the subject from domestic and foreign professors and researchers who have done research on the subject of research and Iran and Afghanistan, especially the water resources of the two countries.Targeted sampling has been done according to the characteristics of the statistical population.In this research, 35 experts were selected, of which 25 participated in completing the Delphi questionnaires and 10 participated in completing the interaction analysis matrix questionnaire, and the answers of 8 of them were used in completing the matrix.Is.Studying the direct matrix reveals the most influential variables.But this alone is not enough to reveal the hidden variables that sometimes affect the studied system.In fact, in addition to direct relationships between variables, there are indirect relationships through reaction loops or feedback between variables.
In order to calculate the indirect effects of each variable, the software automatically increases the relationships between the variables to powers of 2, 3, 4, 5, etc., and based on this, the indirect effects of the variables are measured.Such analyzes provide the possibility of a detailed study of the target system.The output of Micmac software is presented in the form of 5 categories of variables.These variables have differences due to their role in the dynamics of the desired system, which will be discussed separately in the following (Zali, 2012:40).
In order to evaluate the validity or validity of the questions in the questionnaire, while using the opinions of professors and experts, pre-tests were conducted with a limited number, and then modifications were made in the initial questionnaire, and overlapping questions were merged.Using Cronbach's test, the reliability of the questionnaire was 0.767, which is an acceptable result.It should be noted that if Cronbach's alpha coefficient is more than 0.7, the reliability of the questionnaire is evaluated as favorable.To evaluate and obtain the value of each of the variables in the Delphi method, after applying points by experts, Friedman's method was used to average and determine the average value until all the variables that obtained less than this average or average limit were removed and be left out.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Many types of research have been conducted on the Hydro politics relations between Iran and Afghanistan, especially the Helmand common watershed, and one of the reasons for this is the existence of joint agreements between Iran and Afghanistan regarding Iran's water rights from this common watershed.But there are few field studies about Harirud.In the research and research carried out in the Harirud catchment basin, an article with a Hydro politics and geopolitical investigation of the Harirud river has addressed the ineffectiveness Fayaz Gul Mazloum Yar, Mullajan Rahmani, Ebadullah Amir -257-of the restrictive approaches and plans that have been implemented so far and concluded that in such circumstances, the development of regional cooperation in water issues requires avoiding realistic approaches to Security and water and turning attention to these two categories is within the framework of the human security approach, which can lead to the development of water cooperation in the countries of the Harirud basin based on the mutual and common interests of the people of the region and meeting the reasonable needs.However, with the approach of human security, some have paid attention to the development of water cooperation in the Harirud basin countries based on the mutual and common interests of the people of the region, without mentioning the variables and indicators that are effective in this approach (Sinai, 1390: 93).Some have proposed solutions to reduce tension in the bilateral relations between Iran and its neighbors by using geographical indicators of strategy.In these studies, without paying particular attention to the issue of Harirud water, the influential factors in the relations between Iran and Afghanistan have been investigated, and solutions such as multilateralism, connection with extra-regional powers, choosing a long-term strategy to create a peaceful regional environment with the inclusive participation of all of national governments, using the strategy of winning (Karimipour, 2013).In other sources, there are variables such as economic activities, being a coastal country or being a water source, economic and military power, dependence and food security, climate change, mutual distrust, dissatisfaction with the performance of the officials of the two countries towards each other, the instability of Afghanistan's internal turmoil.Afghan authorities' priority for resource management has been introduced to influence the Hydro politics relations of the two countries (Shroder & Ahmadzai, 2016:20).Sinai (1390) in a research regarding the water shortage conditions of Iran, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, population growth of the three countries and the growing need for water in industry and agriculture, the development of regional cooperation in water issues requires avoiding realistic approaches to security and water and focus on these two categories in the framework of the human security approach.This development framework can lead to water cooperation and joint projects in the Harirud basin based on strategic goals and mutual needs, such as coordinated and integrated management of common water resources, continuous consultation with local users, and control of population growth and migration.Zarkhani (2016) investigated the dual role and influence of the border river on the relations of the countries and with an emphasis on the border river of Harirud, in a descriptive-analytical way.They analyzed the role of this common water resource in creating cooperation and convergence between the two countries of Iran and Turkmenistan.Then by introducing 4 types of political, social, economic and structural convergence, they showed that climatic factors can play a significant role in regional tensions.They also mentioned Dusty Dam as an example of cooperation and legal system of joint exploitation between Iran and Turkmenistan.Nami (2015) believe that economic variables are among the most important variables that create regional convergence.Also, since sustainable development is humancentered, environmental threats are seen as the main economic threat.Therefore, the economic variable causes an increase in the environmental security factor in a region.Papli (2013) conducted a research on the global trend of water security and threats to regional stability caused by transboundary water resources.He dealt with the international conflicts of this country with its neighbors and at the end provided a framework for the proper management of the water resources of this region.Kandahari et al. (2015) looked at the interaction between the three countries of Iran, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan, and using game theory along with a comprehensive model of water resources management, provided an efficient tool for evaluating different management scenarios in the Harirud watershed.Their results showed that by benefiting from the knowledge of water resources management,

Fayaz Gul Mazloum Yar, Mullajan Rahmani, Ebadullah Amir
-258-the threat of water conflicts can be turned into a profitable opportunity for countries.Afshari (2016) examined international water agreements such as treaties, protocols and bilateral or multilateral agreements that reduce or intensify disputes and conflicts between the beneficiary countries.Their results showed that most of the contracts are at a favorable level in terms of provisions related to data and information exchange, organizational structure and dispute resolution, but they have not been successful in the implementation phase.Mokhtari (2012) admitted that the water crisis is a late one that has started and will increase and expand in the future.In the meantime, the knowledge of political geography in the form of Hydro politics tendency analyzes this situation in a range of power relations of political-spatial units from supranational to global scale and from cooperation to coordination.They believe that due to phenomena such as climate change on a global scale and a change in the rainfall pattern on a regional scale, countries that previously had dry and low-rainfall climates are facing excessive withdrawal of underground water resources, aquifer level drop and land subsidence.Have become.Rai et al. (2017) introduced 14 criteria influencing transboundary water management in a research.Then they prioritized these criteria in a hypothetical basin using the opinions of experts and experts using the fuzzy clustering method.Their results showed that the criteria of food security, fair profitability, quality and quantity of water flow and hydro-hegemony are the most important priorities to advance negotiations.The review of previous studies indicates that each of the researchers has studied the issue of border and transboundary water sharing from a specific point of view, and they have rarely identified and investigated all the different issues affecting the management of these resources.Based on this, the aim of the current research is to investigate the issue of border water resource management from various aspects of the concept of hydro politics and categorize the identified factors in an innovative structural format to be used as a road map in interactions and negotiations.In this regard, the Harirud catchment basin, which is one of the common basins with many complexities and diversity of issues, was chosen as the study area.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This research is based on qualitative and quantitative data.The research methodology is prospective research and the research method is descriptive-analytical.Data and information have been carefully analyzed.For this purpose, the basic information, concepts, and theoretical foundations of the research have been collected through the library method and by reading books and articles, etc., related to the research topic, and effective criteria have been identified in the research topic.In order to identify the influential variables in the Hydro politics relations between Iran and Afghanistan, about 86 indicators have been identified.

Hydro politic variables and indicators
Hydro politics is related to the ability of geopolitical institutions to manage common water resources in a politically stable manner without tension and conflict between political-spatial units (Rai, Wolf, Sharma & Tiwari, 2017:352).Therefore, the influential variables in hydro politic relations include the conceptual groups of power and development as independent variables and cooperation and conflict as dependent variables, which are used in formulating a format for analyzing opportunities and risks for the countries that are in the basin.Having a common watershed with other coastal countries, it affects (Rai,et al. 2017:362).The components of power include geographical power, material power, and political and economic power.The indicators of material power include military power, economic power, methods of production, and access to knowledge.Geographical power includes more stable features such as coastal location good and the size and value of the territory, phenomena such as resources, population, and access to resources (Zeitoun and Warner, 2006:442).Political power includes the performance of the government, political elites, different social groups, and the structure and performance of the international system.(Qavam, 2010: 258-256).In this analytical framework, the concept of development is described in the form of indicators such as the availability of water resources, storage capacity, food security, energy security, and economic power including trade, financial aid, access to It is information, infrastructure and technical knowledge (Kehl, 2011: 227) political and military dominance affects the process of negotiations.A country that is more involved in the process of negotiations and decision-making may obtain a part of common water resources (Rai, et al. 2017:362).

Research findings
The variables and indicators obtained from library studies were prepared in the form of a questionnaire and sent to the statistical community to implement the Delphi method.After rating the indicators according to the average opinion of the experts, finally, the indicators affecting the importance of Harirud water for Afghanistan were selected.Structural analysis of variables and indicators after identifying the indicators and with the aim of investigating their mutual effects on each other and identifying the key influential variables, the method of structural analysis has been used.This method describes and identifies the system by examining the relationship of all variables.The ability of this model is to identify the relationships between variables and ultimately to identify the key variables that are effective in completing the system (Gara, Heydari and Kokbi, 2015:19).
Respondents were asked to give their opinion on whether there is a direct effect type relationship between variable 1 and variable 2. If the answer is negative, put number 0, number 1 for weak influence, number 2 for moderate influence and finally number 3 for high influence in the cell.

Matrix of direct and indirect effects
The initial analysis of the matrix data and the cross effects show that the selected factors have a great influence on each other and in fact the system is unstable.On the other hand, the matrix based on the statistical index with 3 rotations of the data has 100% desirability and optimization, which indicates the high validity of the questionnaire and answers.Based on the analytical results of the data in Table 4, in the direct effects of the indicators on Afghanistan, the geographical-geopolitical variables have the most influence and the most influence on the system.The matrices show that indicators related to power and development will have a greater reflection in the set of hydro political relations of Afghanistan and will make them the most influential variables in this flow

Analysis of the role of research indicators
Studying the direct matrix reveals the most effective indicators.Based on the output of Micmac software, is presented in the form of 5 categories of indicators.These indicators have differences due to their role in the dynamics of the system in question (Zali, 2012:64-34).Which will be discussed separately in the following.
Influential indicators: Influential indicators are the most critical components.Because the system is dependent on them and the degree of control over these indicators is very important.Among these indicators, there are generally environmental indicators that strongly affect the system.These indicators are generally not controllable by the system, because they are outside the system and act more as factors of stability.
Two-way indicators: these indicators are effective and very effective at the same time.The nature of these indicators is mixed with instability because every action and change on them leads to a reaction and change on other indicators.These indicators are divided into two categories: Secondary Leverage Indicators: These indicators are more influential than influential despite the fact that they are completely independent.Regulatory indicators: these indicators can act as secondary orders of weak goals or secondary indicators (Zali, 2012;Salmani et al., 2015:9).In this research, after identifying and categorizing the factors in three geographic groups, geopolitical, technical, economic, and social-political, and collecting the opinions of the statistical community in combined methods (Delphi and structural analysis), strategic variables influencing the hydro political relations between Iran and Afghanistan were identified.

CONCLUSION
In general, concerning the contents raised in this article, the country of Afghanistan is implicitly in favor of the theory of absolute territorial sovereignty in the exploitation of this international river due to its location in the upstream area of the Harirud River.According to this point of view, rivers and flowing waters in the territorial territory of this government are considered as properties, resources, etc. of the government, and the aforementioned government exercises exclusive and absolute sovereignty in the exploitation of the Harirud River.This is the reason why the Afghan government cannot seriously respect the rights of other waterway states (Iran and Turkmenistan).The implicit emphasis and acceptance of the principle of absolute territorial sovereignty regarding the Harirud River considers this river as an internal river from the upstream country's point of view.Therefore, the past, measures such as digging a canal to divert water and building a dam to store water have been carried out by the Afghan government.
In this study, the extracted variables and indicators based on the review of theoretical foundations using Delphi methods and mutual influence analysis to identify influential, influential, and strategic factors in the Micmac environment have been investigated and analyzed.Based on the analytical results of the research, the geographical-geopolitical variable has the most influence and effectiveness in the system, the economic technical variable has the most indirect influence and the social-political variable has the lowest influence and influence.
The analysis of opportunities and risks in the hydro-political relations between Iran and Afghanistan in the Harirud watershed based on the results of the influence of strategic variables on the target variables is conceived in two ways: Risks: Due to the weakness of Afghanistan's political position in Iran's foreign policy and the structural weakness of Afghanistan's national power indicators vis-a-vis Iran, Afghanistan will try to deal with Iran on the issue of water from the perspective of power.In this case, Iran's mistrust of Afghanistan will increase and due to the low economic interdependence between the two countries, Iran will try to react to the Afghan government in the economic, geopolitical, and political fields to satisfy the Afghans.To pay attention to Iran's water rights from its transboundary rivers in the water issue.Based on this, it is expected that the relations between Iran and Afghanistan will move towards tension.
Opportunities: The geomorphology of the Harirud watershed as an influential environmental indicator will cause both Iran and Afghanistan to face a shortage of water resources in this area.In this case, Iran can improve Afghanistan's political position in Iran's foreign policy by managing strategic indicators and using its geopolitical position to give Afghanistan access to open waters through the implementation of the Chabahar Agreement between Iran, India, and Afghanistan.Afghanistan's agricultural sector and its related food industries.This will improve the economic indicators of the two countries and solve some of Afghanistan's internal problems related to human security.In such an environment, the performance of international institutions will improve as a research regulatory indicator for investment in the water sector and can play a role as a key player in the system.Based on this, not only the lack of water will not lead the hydro-political relations of the two countries to tension, but the two countries will reach a common understanding that Afghanistan

Fayaz
indicators: These indicators have a very high capacity to become key and strategic players of the system because due to their unstable nature, they have the potential to become the breaking point of the system.2. Target indicators: These indicators are more effective than they are effective and they can be identified with acceptable certainty as the complete results of the system.Influential or dependent indicators: Dependent indicators have low influence and very high influence.Therefore, they are very sensitive to the evolution of influential and bimodal indicators, in other words, these indicators are the output of the system.Independent indicators: These indicators are not affected by other system indicators and do not affect them.These indicators include two categories: discrete indicators: these indicators have nothing to do with the dynamics and current changes of the system and can be removed from the system.

Table 1 .
Variables and research indicators

Table 2 .
some key indicators of the Harirud watershed(Duran Research and Analysis,  2015; King and Sturtewagen, 2010)

Table 3 .
Initial analysis of the interaction matrix data

Table 4 .
Direct and indirect effects of indicators and variables on each other in the case of Afghanistan

Table 5 .
Analytical results of research indicators